Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.810835 2.405844 3.217951 4.438000 6.280221e+00 9.055468e+00 1.375558e+01
2024-12-29 1.272691 1.934646 3.013308 5.014460 8.930401e+00 1.702086e+01 3.766617e+01
2025-01-05 0.935150 1.585227 2.814481 5.573613 1.254633e+01 3.297502e+01 1.220644e+02
2025-01-12 0.657215 1.208799 2.378862 5.450395 1.520412e+01 5.581585e+01 3.999338e+02
2025-01-19 0.465793 0.913105 1.953537 5.070518 1.725097e+01 8.996476e+01 1.582131e+03
2025-01-26 0.363835 0.761136 1.778574 5.301928 2.290641e+01 1.948722e+02 2.269777e+04
2025-02-02 0.305398 0.683432 1.755895 6.126174 3.568640e+01 6.432834e+02 2.185751e+11
2025-02-09 0.264924 0.633065 1.790112 7.393651 6.167214e+01 3.760782e+03 NaN
2025-02-16 0.221956 0.557480 1.699528 8.073989 9.407184e+01 3.198325e+04 NaN
2025-02-23 0.180374 0.468799 1.506834 7.933221 1.211501e+02 4.437353e+05 NaN
2025-03-02 0.145973 0.389050 1.301000 7.415223 1.419487e+02 4.663419e+07 NaN
2025-03-09 0.127687 0.353583 1.257246 8.140056 2.323300e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.110757 0.318252 1.202418 8.880846 4.055194e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.097964 0.292316 1.176675 10.036602 8.348847e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086715 0.267572 1.140889 11.160311 1.838572e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.073751 0.231501 1.017052 10.709396 2.706984e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.062235 0.197356 0.882750 9.723870 3.280067e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.055278 0.179156 0.833009 10.136944 7.082306e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.051114 0.170891 0.840529 11.887987 3.537204e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.048080 0.166300 0.870908 14.696983 7.697295e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043973 0.155488 0.848788 16.188763 1.070102e+08 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.039171 0.139944 0.779082 15.771075 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034595 0.124170 0.697418 14.507608 NaN NaN NaN